Researchers at Uber and Google are working on modifications to the two most popular deep-learning frameworks that will enable them to handle probability. This will provide a way for the smartest AI programs to measure their confidence in a prediction or a decision—essentially, to know when they should doubt themselves.
“You would like a system that gives you a measure of how certain it is,” says Dustin Tran, who is working on this problem at Google. “If a self-driving car doesn’t know its level of uncertainty, it can make a fatal error, and that can be catastrophic.”
Goodman explains that giving deep learning the ability to handle probability can make it smarter in several ways. It could, for instance, help a program recognize things, with a reasonable degree of certainty, from just a few examples rather than many thousands. Offering a measure of certainty rather than a yes-or-no answer should also help with engineering complex systems.